Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:41:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E4 0xe4d4…2983 sports 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$3,443 (+13%) realized +$3,532 · open −$89
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%13W / 22L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$662per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$253est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$1,909now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,540
7 days+$1,999
14 days+$1,999
30 days+$1,999
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$3,412
other 28% +$8,009
crypto 11% −$2,687
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +39.7% +26.4% 37% 37% -1.8%
≤30d 35 +39.7% +26.4% 37% 37% -1.8%
≤90d 35 +39.7% +26.4% 37% 37% -1.8%
all 35 +39.7% +26.4% 37% 37% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.4% 37% -1.8%
10% +14.3% 37% -11.2%
15% +3.3% 34% -19.8%
20% -6.9% 31% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$959) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late +69% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,342 vs −$702 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,909
Realized+$3,532
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses13 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$253
Open positions4
Markets (closed)35 / 39
History coverage7d
Avg bet$662
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 58¢ 82¢ $888 $1,255 +$367 (+41%)
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ 22¢ $555 $271 −$284 (-51%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 30¢ $333 $199 −$134 (-40%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 37¢ 30¢ $222 $183 −$39 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,016 −$1,000 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $550 +$534 +97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $959 +$1,286 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $497 −$490 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $308 −$300 -98%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $507 −$500 -99%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $889 +$4,189 +471%
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals Jun 17 $246 +$3,785 +1540%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $529 +$607 +115%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $483 −$471 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,988 −$1,952 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,479 −$2,445 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $1,397 +$1,084 +78%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,526 −$2,487 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $2,032 −$2,000 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,021 +$2,262 +222%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $509 +$773 +152%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 13 $849 −$833 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $509 −$500 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 13 $255 −$250 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $205 +$914 +446%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$22 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $513 −$500 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $410 −$400 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $107 −$100 -94%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $524 +$836 +160%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $338 1h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $226 1h
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $564 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $899 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 45¢ $1,016 3h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 21h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $959 23h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $550 23h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $497 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes $308 27h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $308 27h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $507 27h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $889 43h
Lionel Messi: 3+ goals BUY Yes $246 43h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? SELL Yes 20¢ $1,136 44h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $483 45h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes $529 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 38¢ $1,988 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $2,479 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 97¢ $2,481 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $1,397 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $2,526 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Curaçao 47¢ $2,032 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 37¢ $339 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 36¢ $510 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1,021 4d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $509 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,909.06 · official $1,870.79 · 55 history records