Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4d8…19c5 sports 952 markets active 1h ago coverage 123d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 123d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,984 (-18%) realized −$3,984 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%586W / 366L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day12.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 123d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$538
weather 18% −$7
other 17% +$172
crypto 10% +$50
world 0% +$9
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 82% -5.1%
≤30d 82 -0.1% -9.6% 85% 82% -5.1%
≤90d 449 -61.1% -64.8% 24% 23% -74.0%
all 952 -6.4% -15.3% 62% 54% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 54% -10.8%
10% -23.4% 42% -19.4%
15% -30.8% 32% -27.2%
20% -37.6% 23% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -71% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +43% → late -55% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$14 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,984
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses586 / 366
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)952 / 952
History coverage123d ⚠
Avg bet$23
Trades / day12.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 952 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $33 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 26 $32 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 26 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $31 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 26 $28 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $27 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $29 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $32 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $19 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 25 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $24 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $23 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 24 $22 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $22 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $19 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 24 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $17 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$3 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 24 $17 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$2 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $33 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $30 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $8 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $23 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $28 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $29 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $27 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $4 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $27 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $26 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $24 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $27 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $27 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $13 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $10 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records