Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:30:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E4 0xe4d9…f3ba crypto 679 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$595 (+1%) realized +$605 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate85%574W / 98L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown96%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1,529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$20
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% +$331
other 29% −$41
sports 6% +$48
finance 0% +$3
world 0% +$1
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -2.1% -11.4% 77% 31% -5.9%
≤30d 91 +3.4% -6.4% 90% 38% -6.6%
≤90d 643 +3.0% -6.8% 86% 41% -8.7%
all 672 +2.8% -7.0% 85% 40% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 40% -8.7%
10% -15.9% 24% -17.5%
15% -24.0% 13% -25.4%
20% -31.5% 7% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$35 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$1,529
Realized+$605
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses574 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)672 / 679
History coverage99d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown96%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 672 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,005 $996 −$9 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Under 97¢ 100¢ $500 $513 +$13 (+3%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Paraguay leading at halftime? No 93¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1 $0 +48%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 +$1 +6%
Uruguay leading at halftime? Jun 27 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 25 $100 +$1 +1%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $2 +$2 +97%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 23 $10 $0 +4%
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $2 $0 +5%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 22 $1 $0 +12%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 22 $2 $0 +5%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $15 +$1 +5%
Tunisia leading at halftime? Jun 21 $100 +$1 +2%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 $0 +14%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 $0 +23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
England leading at halftime? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 $0 +2%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +13%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $6 $0 +4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,001 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $501 +$8 +2%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 17 $3 $0 +8%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +21%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $300 +$5 +2%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $103 +$41 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $200 +$4 +2%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $150 +$3 +2%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 14 $1 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $500 1h
Paraguay leading at halftime? BUY No 93¢ $14 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 93¢ $1 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 62¢ $1 4h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 95¢ $20 2d
Uruguay leading at halftime? BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Scotland leading at halftime? BUY No 99¢ $100 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $2 5d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 5d
Ghana leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $10 6d
Uzbekistan leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $2 6d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY No 96¢ $5 7d
Austria leading at halftime? BUY No 89¢ $1 7d
Egypt leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $2 7d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY No 95¢ $15 8d
Tunisia leading at halftime? BUY No 98¢ $100 8d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 87¢ $1 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $1 9d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 85¢ $1 9d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $1 9d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $25 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 10d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 97¢ $30 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 87¢ $11 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 11d
Colombia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,528.92 · official $1,530.72 (match) · 1773 history records