Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:45:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E4 0xe4db…7e3d crypto 150 markets active 1h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$713 (-2%) realized −$585 · open −$128
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate85%123W / 22L
Whale WR91%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$790now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$15
14 days−$13
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$608
other 14% −$108
world 9% +$2
finance 1% −$16
politics 1% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.2% -16.0% 86% 43% -12.4%
≤30d 19 -4.9% -14.0% 89% 21% -10.2%
≤90d 47 -11.3% -19.8% 79% 21% -9.8%
all 145 -4.7% -13.8% 85% 14% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 14% -11.2%
10% -22.0% 6% -19.7%
15% -29.6% 3% -27.5%
20% -36.5% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 91% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$100 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$790
Realized−$585
Unrealized−$128
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses123 / 22
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)145 / 150
History coverage138d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $411 $413 +$2 (+1%)
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 100¢ 100¢ $124 $124 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 99¢ 90¢ $126 $115 −$11 (-9%)
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 99¢ 63¢ $126 $80 −$46 (-37%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? No 99¢ 44¢ $131 $58 −$73 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $52 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $51 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $93 +$21 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $95 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 22 $118 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $72 +$1 +1%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $127 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $657 +$2 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$7 +14%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $343 +$4 +1%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 11 $466 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 05 $50 −$35 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 05 $51 +$2 +4%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 03 $81 +$5 +6%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 03 $207 $0 +0%
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world Jun 03 $249 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 03 $444 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $21 −$11 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 28 $46 +$6 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $21 +$4 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 28 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 28 $45 +$4 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET May 26 $51 −$21 -42%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 26 $21 +$6 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 26 $52 +$40 +77%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET May 26 $52 −$50 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET May 26 $31 +$3 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 26 $31 −$30 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET May 26 $30 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 26 $20 +$4 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET May 26 $124 +$74 +59%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 26 $385 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 26 $614 +$1 +0%
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 21 $2 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Apr 16 $7 −$5 -67%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 16 $7 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$4 -43%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 07 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 07 $10 −$10 -95%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 07 $22 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 03 $21 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Apr 03 $21 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Mar 25 $38 −$38 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Mar 25 $38 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 25 $38 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $59 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $52 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $93 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $95 1h
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $396 3d
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $15 3d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 100¢ $5 3d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 100¢ $20 3d
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwid BUY No 100¢ $99 3d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $131 5d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $126 5d
Will there be more than 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher world BUY No 99¢ $126 5d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $24 6d
Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $94 6d
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 99¢ $72 16d
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 100¢ $499 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $790.18 · official $790.18 (match) · 702 history records