Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:35:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E4 0xe4de…846b sports 158 markets active 2h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$207 (+1%) realized +$207 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate63%100W / 58L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$141
7 days−$77
14 days−$7
30 days+$83
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$38
other 30% +$211
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +6.1% -4.0% 53% 40% -17.3%
≤30d 60 +1.6% -8.1% 65% 48% -8.1%
≤90d 105 +5.9% -4.2% 63% 40% -9.6%
all 158 +2.9% -6.9% 63% 37% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.9% 37% -8.8%
10% -15.8% 24% -17.5%
15% -23.9% 13% -25.5%
20% -31.4% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$38 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$207
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses100 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)158 / 158
History coverage621d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 158 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $53 +$22 +41%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $100 −$4 -4%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$101 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India Jun 21 $104 −$58 -56%
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York Jun 21 $7 $0 +4%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $7 +$33 +442%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $105 +$10 +10%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$46 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $100 +$20 +20%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $99 +$15 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $101 +$39 +39%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$1 +26%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $209 −$1 -0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $102 −$59 -58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $111 +$1 +1%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $105 +$25 +24%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $525 +$175 +33%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $101 −$41 -40%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $103 −$68 -66%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $43 +$7 +16%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $102 −$22 -21%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $99 +$8 +8%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 10 $100 +$1 +1%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $104 +$16 +16%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $104 +$26 +25%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $102 +$38 +37%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 4.5 Jun 07 $104 +$16 +16%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $99 −$67 -68%
T20 Blast: Somerset vs Warwickshire Jun 07 $98 −$70 -71%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $99 +$51 +52%
Gibraltar vs. Cayman Islands: O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $103 −$51 -50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $100 +$10 +10%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Hampshire Jun 05 $104 −$28 -27%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $102 +$12 +12%
Slovakia vs. Montenegro: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $99 −$27 -27%
Indonesia vs. Oman: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $46 +$14 +30%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $101 +$19 +19%
Singapore vs. China PR: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $103 +$1 +0%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $106 +$4 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $104 −$50 -48%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $103 +$30 +29%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-03? Jun 04 $47 +$13 +27%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $105 −$39 -37%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 5.5 Jun 02 $105 +$34 +32%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $98 −$14 -14%
Austria vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $103 +$15 +15%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $95 +$15 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 93¢ $74 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $53 2h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 80¢ $95 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $91 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 83¢ $8 28h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $102 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India SELL India 39¢ $46 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 86¢ $8 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 86¢ $10 35h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs India BUY India 86¢ $86 35h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Washington Freedom 96¢ $2 47h
Major League Cricket: Washington Freedom vs Mi New York BUY Washington Freedom 96¢ $6 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 18¢ $2 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $19 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 96¢ $96 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $57 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $105 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $102 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $100 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $114 6d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $99 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $140 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $10 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $0 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $1 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $13 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $14 6d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 72¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 577 history records