Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:58:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E4 0xe4e5…fc8d other 43 markets active 8h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$319 (+53%) realized +$319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%19W / 24L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$43
14 days−$65
30 days−$94
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$111
politics 33% +$406
sports 18% +$21
world 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -16.2% -24.2% 41% 41% -34.7%
≤30d 31 -6.8% -15.7% 45% 45% -30.9%
≤90d 43 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 44% +37.9%
all 43 -2.3% -11.6% 44% 44% +37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 44% +37.9%
10% -20.0% 42% +24.7%
15% -27.8% 40% +12.6%
20% -34.8% 26% +1.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +51% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$11 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses19 / 24
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage71d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $3 $0 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$3 +50%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $5 $0 -9%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$8 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +44%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$11 +52%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -54%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -48%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $7 −$5 -64%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $1 +$3 +249%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$12 -82%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$8 +38%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$11 -53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $152 +$453 +297%
Will the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) win the most seats in the 202 May 04 $50 −$47 -94%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $4 +$1 +29%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Apr 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $2 +$5 +238%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $1 −$1 -93%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $1 $0 +47%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $1 +$2 +151%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $3 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $5 22h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $5 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 6d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 8d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 8d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records