Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4f0…6450 weather 859 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d only
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,745 (-26%) realized −$1,529 · open −$216
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%121W / 729L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day75.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$371now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$375
14 days−$318
30 days−$459
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 93% −$717
crypto 6% −$48
tech 1% −$25
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -36.4% -42.5% 25% 25% -34.5%
≤30d 768 -9.8% -18.4% 14% 14% -18.6%
≤90d 850 -11.4% -19.8% 14% 14% -18.9%
all 850 -11.4% -19.8% 14% 14% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 14% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 11% -26.6%
15% -34.5% 9% -33.7%
20% -40.9% 9% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$7 · ×5.28 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$371
Realized−$1,529
Unrealized−$216
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses121 / 729
Open positions9
Markets (closed)850 / 859
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day75.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 850 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? Yes 81¢ 95¢ $165 $192 +$28 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? Yes 75¢ 66¢ $75 $66 −$10 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $38 $37 −$1 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? Yes 28¢ 21¢ $24 $18 −$6 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 19? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $32 $1 −$32 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $83 $0 −$83 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 229 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $11 −$4 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $12 −$11 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 −$9 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $30 −$29 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $9 −$9 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -0%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$8 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +11%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$2 +25%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 83¢ $54 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 81¢ $74 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 80¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 50¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 19? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 2h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 39¢ $39 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 19? BUY Yes 28¢ $24 2h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 19? BUY Yes 63¢ $53 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 17¢ $23 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $370.65 · official $370.66 (match) · 3500 history records