Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:25:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4f9…9ab0 weather 713 markets active 1h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$109 (-0%) realized −$139 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%644W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day20.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days−$113
14 days−$75
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$144
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -6.4% -15.3% 78% 15% -16.5%
≤30d 223 -0.5% -10.0% 88% 9% -11.8%
≤90d 631 +2.0% -7.8% 91% 9% -10.2%
all 707 +1.1% -8.5% 91% 9% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 9% -10.0%
10% -17.3% 4% -18.7%
15% -25.3% 2% -26.5%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$144
Realized−$139
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses644 / 63
Open positions6
Markets (closed)707 / 713
History coverage104d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day20.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 707 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $76 $78 +$1 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? No 99¢ 100¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $14 +$26 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $47 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 14 $22 +$7 +32%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $56 +$44 +78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 +$11 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $53 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$9 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 −$11 -76%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $48 −$46 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 09 $93 +$13 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 09 $32 +$4 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on June 6? Jun 09 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 09 $66 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 6? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 6? Jun 09 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $11 54m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 99¢ $12 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $6 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $13 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $11 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju BUY Yes 98¢ $10 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $2 9h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $49 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY Yes 45¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 35¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 14h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 14h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $4 18h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $26 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $143.80 · official $143.80 (match) · 2728 history records