Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:29:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E4 0xe4fc…8af7 sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (2675 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$14,843 (+7%) realized +$15,328 · open −$485
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +720% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +506% what you keep after slip
Net edge+506%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate51%60W / 58L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$4,539per market
Trades / day2675.3pace
Fees−$3,209est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$9,101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$513
other 47% +$9,009
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (2675 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+641.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 118 +719.9% +641.9% 51% 42% -1.2%
≤30d 118 +719.9% +641.9% 51% 42% -1.2%
≤90d 118 +719.9% +641.9% 51% 42% -1.2%
all 118 +719.9% +641.9% 51% 42% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2675.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +641.9% 42% -1.2%
10% +570.9% 42% -10.7%
15% ← realistic here +506.0% 41% -19.3%
20% +446.6% 41% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +720% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +99% → late +1341% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
33.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$238 vs −$61 · ×3.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$9,101
Realized+$15,328
Unrealized−$485
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses60 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$3,209
Open positions8
Markets (closed)118 / 49
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$4,539
Trades / day2675.3
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 48¢ $3,534 $3,296 −$238 (-7%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? No 45¢ 42¢ $3,120 $2,975 −$145 (-5%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? No 16¢ 16¢ $1,120 $1,085 −$35 (-3%)
Will England win on 2026-06-27? No 16¢ 16¢ $1,086 $1,049 −$37 (-3%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Panama 36¢ 34¢ $726 $695 −$30 (-4%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? No 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? No 49¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 64¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 92 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 27 $0 +$181 +95171%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 27 $0 +$5 +9483%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 27 $0 +$70 +84445%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 27 $0 +$45 +71213%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $0 −$356 -121020%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 27 $0 −$25 -10380%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $0 $0 -101%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $0 $0 -103%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 27 $0 +$85 +77603%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $0 −$80 -125288%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 27 $0 −$5 -7464%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $0 −$138 -65739%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $0 +$15 +19529%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $0 +$65 +61508%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 27 $0 +$70 +85683%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 -22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 27 $0 −$122 -89346%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 27 $0 +$320 +95106%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 27 $0 −$7 -32393%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $2 +$13 +758%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $0 $0 -109%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 27 $0 +$85 +87469%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $0 +$30 +39164%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 27 $0 −$35 -34202%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 27 $0 +$40 +48684%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $0 −$7 -9501%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 27 $0 $0 -80%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 27 $0 +$45 +47167%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 27 $0 +$110 +55632%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 27 $0 +$55 +55865%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $0 +$43 +58489%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 -94%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 27 $0 +$5 +7714%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $0 $0 -103%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 27 $0 +$40 +67124%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 27 $0 +$9 +13595%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 27 $0 +$65 +93026%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 27 $1 −$21 -2830%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $0 +$40 +29406%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $0 +$5 +26076%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 27 $0 +$80 +157686%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 27 $0 −$156 -481673%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $0 +$25 +57389%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $0 +$16 +14290%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 27 $0 +$144 +46367%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $0 $0 -101%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $0 +$25 +38547%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $3 0m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $235 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $235 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $161 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $235 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $85 1m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $1 2m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $7 2m
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $19 3m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $235 3m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $140 3m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $1 3m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $1 3m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $235 3m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 47¢ $1 3m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 50¢ $250 12m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Panama 36¢ $6 16m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,101.24 · official $9,100.91 (match) · 3500 history records