Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E4
0xe4ff…85ba
other · 62 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$46 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$49 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$207
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses4 / 48
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions10
Markets (closed)52 / 62
History coverage3d
Avg bet$648
Trades / day1296.9
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 10 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$49
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $19 $19 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $402 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $571 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $1,801 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $2,417 −$2 -0%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $122 +$19 +16%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $293 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $24 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $40 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $121 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $171 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $304 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $3,370 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $332 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 12 $20 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $405 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $20 +$20 +100%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $376 +$25 +6%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $2,368 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $176 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $9,290 −$6 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $286 $0 -0%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 12 $59 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $825 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 12 $152 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Jun 12 $20 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $500 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 12 $19 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $100 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $164 $0 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $107 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $1,392 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $26 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,544 −$1 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $21 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,027 $0 -0%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $490 $0 -0%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $1 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $21 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 30% +$13
other 28% +$40
world 17% −$2
economics 14% −$1
tech 9% −$1
crypto 2% $0
sports 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $8 3m
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $8 3m
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $20 5m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $60 17m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $16 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $31 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $13 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $8 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $46 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $16 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $41 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $8 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $26 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $12 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $3 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $40 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $23 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 20m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $17 21m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $6 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $6 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $13 22m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $11 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $11 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $17 23m
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $4 23m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +2.3% -7.4% 8% 4% -9.4%
≤30d 52 +2.3% -7.4% 8% 4% -9.4%
≤90d 52 +2.3% -7.4% 8% 4% -9.4%
all 52 +2.3% -7.4% 8% 4% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1296.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 4% -9.4%
10% -16.3% 2% -18.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 2% -26.0%
20% -31.8% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.85 · official $206.85 (match) · 3500 history records