Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:33:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe502…56b7 world 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$63 (-1%) realized −$63 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$2
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$71
other 10% $0
politics 3% +$2
tech 2% −$2
sports 1% +$10
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% −$3
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.2% -8.5% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 26 -1.4% -10.8% 19% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 35 +7.4% -2.8% 29% 3% -10.6%
all 83 +0.1% -9.4% 35% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 4% -10.3%
10% -18.1% 4% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 2% -26.7%
20% -33.2% 2% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)83 / 84
History coverage476d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $77 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $24 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 20 $76 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $78 −$1 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 20 $77 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $159 +$3 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $73 +$1 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $5 $0 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $89 −$4 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $73 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $77 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $85 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $152 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $225 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 07 $161 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $85 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $75 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $75 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $3 −$1 -36%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $84 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $84 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $78 −$1 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $80 −$3 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $116 −$39 -34%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 22 $115 +$2 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 21 $146 −$34 -23%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $91 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $1,150 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $1,045 +$1 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $21 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $1,147 +$1 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 11 $373 +$2 +0%
Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Dec 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -66%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $6 $0 +8%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 17 $21 $0 +1%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Apr 30 $16 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 30 $16 $0 -2%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in British Columbia in Apr 29 $16 $0 +3%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Apr 29 $15 +$1 +4%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 28 $30 $0 -1%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Apr 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will the PPC win 0 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 26 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $46 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $30 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $77 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $24 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 91¢ $76 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 91¢ $76 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $19 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $58 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $78 2d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $77 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 45¢ $78 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $74 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $17 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $57 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $73 5d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $5 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $0 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 6d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $34 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $0 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $12 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $21 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $73 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $73 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.22 · official $0.00 · 282 history records