Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:23:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe502…3672 crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$41 (-2%) realized −$41 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$193per market
Trades / day12.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 92% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 92% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 92% 0% -11.1%
all 13 -1.7% -11.1% 92% 0% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -11.1%
10% -19.6% 0% -19.6%
15% -27.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -34.5% 0% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$65 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$41
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$193
Trades / day12.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $150 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $191 −$65 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $205 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $200 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $199 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $199 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $150 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $126 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $191 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $205 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $205 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $205 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $205 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $205 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $199 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $199 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 38 history records