Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:27:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe502…e3b0 crypto 219 markets active 2h ago coverage 28d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,943 (-37%) realized −$1,943 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate72%158W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$333
14 days−$338
30 days−$1,753
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,753
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -5.3% -14.4% 72% 72% -30.3%
≤30d 219 -8.0% -16.8% 72% 67% -37.0%
≤90d 219 -8.0% -16.8% 72% 67% -37.0%
all 219 -8.0% -16.8% 72% 67% -37.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.8% 67% -37.0%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 39% -43.0%
15% -32.0% 10% -48.5%
20% -38.7% 4% -53.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$40 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

28d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,943
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses158 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)219 / 219
History coverage28d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 219 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $75 +$58 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $155 −$151 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $94 +$114 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 24 $62 +$62 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $63 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $110 +$79 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $123 +$101 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $214 −$211 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $52 +$40 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $13 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $62 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $32 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $31 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $12 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $29 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $62 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $31 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 742 history records