Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe504…600e sports 689 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35,584 (-3%) realized −$36,197 · open +$613
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%284W / 399L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,695per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$14,807est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$6,107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 240d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$25,248
other 12% −$32,475
world 1% −$5,355
crypto 1% +$5,922
finance 0% −$440
politics 0% −$105
economics 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -13.4% -21.6% 38% 37% -18.4%
≤30d 297 -11.8% -20.2% 41% 41% -16.3%
≤90d 564 -13.4% -21.6% 41% 40% -12.4%
all 683 -11.1% -19.6% 42% 41% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 41% -14.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 40% -22.4%
15% -34.3% 38% -29.9%
20% -40.8% 35% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$2,041) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,649 vs −$1,320 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$6,107
Realized−$36,197
Unrealized+$613
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses284 / 399
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$14,807
Open positions4
Markets (closed)683 / 689
History coverage240d
Avg bet$1,695
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 683 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 54¢ 58¢ $4,203 $4,554 +$351 (+8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 30¢ $859 $905 +$46 (+5%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Under 24¢ 36¢ $333 $500 +$166 (+50%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Under 7¢ 10¢ $99 $148 +$50 (+50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 225 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3,757 −$3,682 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2,282 −$1,094 -48%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,281 −$440 -34%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,852 −$1,815 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $965 −$941 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,564 +$1,482 +42%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,284 +$831 +65%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $373 −$364 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,641 −$1,630 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $125 −$122 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $297 −$289 -97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,071 +$1,125 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1,431 −$1,416 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $11,664 +$4,022 +34%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,796 +$17 +1%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2,976 −$266 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10,237 −$5,263 -51%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $792 +$499 +63%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2,047 +$1,999 +98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,923 −$326 -11%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,596 +$846 +53%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,417 −$1,396 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6,978 −$6,893 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $804 −$788 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $14,300 −$13,555 -95%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 15 $1,279 −$120 -9%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10,687 −$10,535 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,704 −$1,685 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $914 −$893 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $6,480 +$5,806 +90%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3,013 −$560 -19%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,952 −$1,913 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3,253 −$3,203 -98%
Will Bo Nickal win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $445 +$563 +126%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Jun 15 $237 −$233 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $400 −$393 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,749 −$1,717 -98%
Game Handicap: LY (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) Jun 14 $680 +$1,287 +189%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $543 −$52 -10%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,245 −$4,209 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $1,062 −$66 -6%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $842 −$822 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $563 +$1,535 +273%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7,214 +$5,899 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5,158 +$6,442 +125%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $2,981 −$1,329 -45%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $819 −$36 -4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1,667 −$1,631 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $3,106 +$3,014 +97%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,269 +$2,911 +229%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 24¢ $341 52m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 53¢ $1,671 55m
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 54¢ $880 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 28¢ $878 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $1,710 1h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $451 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,002 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $1,187 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $887 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1,417 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $841 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY 26¢ $225 3h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $396 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $2,282 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1,281 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 16¢ $403 4h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 21¢ $295 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $150 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $154 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $766 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 23¢ $388 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $661 5h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 60¢ $1,284 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $3,564 23h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $373 24h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Algeria 77¢ $1,641 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $125 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $297 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 66¢ $212 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,106.57 · official $5,991.12 · 2649 history records