Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe506…f702 other 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$197 (-32%) realized −$197 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%14W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$5
14 days+$10
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% −$201
sports 15% +$17
crypto 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +3.2% -6.6% 22% 22% -7.4%
≤30d 43 +20.1% +8.7% 33% 33% -13.4%
≤90d 45 +14.8% +3.8% 31% 31% -37.7%
all 45 +14.8% +3.8% 31% 31% -37.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.8% 31% -37.7%
10% -6.1% 31% -43.7%
15% -15.2% 31% -49.1%
20% -23.5% 29% -54.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$197
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses14 / 31
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 54
History coverage30d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $2 +$16 +784%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $101 +$80 +79%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $82 −$80 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 Jun 28 $1 +$8 +784%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -97%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -99%
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$5 +108%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $7 +$8 +119%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $1 +$6 +596%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +52%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$7 +712%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$10 -47%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$8 +37%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$10 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $71 −$70 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $181 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $72 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $61 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 6h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 SELL 99¢ $9 40h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 42h
Exact Score: Algeria 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 42h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 44h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-0 BUY 11¢ $1 2d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 4¢ $1 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AN BUY 4¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 2¢ $2 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 7¢ $2 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $7 4d
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.88 · official $1.88 (match) · 80 history records