trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +79.2% | +62.1% | 62% | 62% | +75.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +67.2% | +51.3% | 56% | 56% | +73.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +39.9% | +26.6% | 42% | 42% | +22.6% |
| all | 32 | +9.9% | -0.5% | 38% | 31% | -12.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -0.5% | 31% | -12.2% |
| 10% | -10.1% | 28% | -20.6% |
| 15% | -18.7% | 25% | -28.3% |
| 20% | -26.7% | 22% | -35.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 | Under | 30¢ | 78¢ | $40 | $103 | +$63 (+158%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 13¢ | $35 | $42 | +$7 (+21%) |
| Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 81¢ | 81¢ | $20 | $20 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? | No | 60¢ | 57¢ | $20 | $19 | −$1 (-5%) |
| Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 4¢ | 6¢ | $10 | $14 | +$4 (+42%) |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 20¢ | 20¢ | $10 | $10 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? | Jun 21 | $51 | +$176 | +344% |
| Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $53 | +$37 | +70% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $30 | +$32 | +105% |
| Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 18 | $32 | −$31 | -98% |
| Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $20 | +$54 | +262% |
| Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $20 | −$20 | -98% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | Jun 18 | $7 | +$4 | +59% |
| Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox | Jun 15 | $51 | −$3 | -6% |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | Jun 14 | $7 | −$2 | -28% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | May 14 | $18 | −$2 | -12% |
| Spurs vs. Timberwolves | May 09 | $99 | −$97 | -98% |
| Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? | Apr 30 | $20 | −$3 | -15% |
| Will Japan win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Mar 08 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | Mar 08 | $10 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? | Feb 14 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET | Jan 24 | $50 | −$49 | -98% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 24 | $466 | −$249 | -53% |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Jan 23 | $350 | −$10 | -3% |
| Nuggets vs. Wizards | Jan 23 | $50 | +$24 | +47% |
| Cavaliers vs. Hornets | Jan 22 | $50 | +$38 | +75% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Jan 21 | $190 | −$9 | -5% |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | Jan 21 | $46 | −$1 | -2% |
| Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 17 | $640 | −$10 | -2% |
| Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Jan 17 | $49 | $0 | -0% |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? | Jan 14 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Trail Blazers vs. Warriors | Jan 14 | $100 | +$24 | +24% |
| Hawks vs. Lakers | Jan 14 | $100 | +$88 | +88% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jan 14 | $200 | −$109 | -55% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? | Dec 30 | $200 | +$9 | +5% |
| Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? | Dec 29 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua | Dec 29 | $100 | −$2 | -2% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Dec 29 | $201 | +$38 | +19% |