Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:44:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe50a…c80c crypto 666 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate68%455W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$94
14 days−$96
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$175
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -8.4% -17.1% 62% 61% -23.4%
≤30d 318 -1.6% -10.9% 63% 58% -11.9%
≤90d 666 -2.7% -12.0% 68% 53% -13.2%
all 666 -2.7% -12.0% 68% 53% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 53% -13.2%
10% -20.4% 28% -21.5%
15% -28.1% 13% -29.1%
20% -35.2% 7% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses455 / 211
Open positions0
Markets (closed)666 / 666
History coverage64d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 666 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 13 $11 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $40 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $6 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $6 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $6 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $47 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1656 history records