Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:26:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe50b…c2a8 sports 496 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$6,224 (+48%) realized +$6,486 · open −$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%277W / 535L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day106.3pace
Fees−$222est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$662now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$2,536
other 16% +$475
crypto 10% +$380
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 637 -50.2% -55.0% 26% 24% -69.8%
≤30d 812 -33.3% -39.6% 34% 33% -56.8%
≤90d 812 -33.3% -39.6% 34% 33% -56.8%
all 812 -33.3% -39.6% 34% 33% -56.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.6% 33% -56.8%
10% ← realistic here -45.4% 29% -60.9%
15% -50.7% 26% -64.7%
20% -55.5% 21% -68.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$38 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$662
Realized+$6,486
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses277 / 535
Est. fees paid−$222
Open positions14
Markets (closed)812 / 496
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$26
Trades / day106.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 812 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $340 $267 −$73 (-21%)
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $178 $150 −$29 (-16%)
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+2%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 8¢ $72 $26 −$46 (-65%)
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $20 $18 −$3 (-13%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 57¢ 78¢ $11 $16 +$4 (+37%)
Will Malaga CF achieve promotion from LALIGA 2 to LALIGA for the 2026-27 season? Yes 43¢ 24¢ $22 $12 −$9 (-43%)
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $116 $12 −$104 (-90%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Yes 15¢ 44¢ $3 $10 +$6 (+190%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 51¢ 99¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+96%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? No 84¢ 56¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-33%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of AUR? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+138%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of UDMR? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 483 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elche CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Hawks vs. Wizards: O/U 235.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Ernest Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Georgia Southern vs. Appalachian State: O/U 57.5 Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $117 −$117 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-03-28? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Lille OSC vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Australian Open Women's: Dayana Yastremska vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
UFC 323: Vettori vs. Ferreira (Middleweight, Early Prelims) Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Capitals vs. Flames Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
O/U 49.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders: O/U 50.5 Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Rayo Vallecano end in a draw? Jun 17 $84 −$84 -100%
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get less Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Lions (-7.5) Jun 17 $125 −$125 -100%
Duke Blue Devils vs. Michigan State Spartans Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Cherbourg: Murphy Cassone vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
Idaho State Bengals vs. Sam Houston Bearkats Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Al Ahli Saudi Club win on 2025-11-21? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
US Men's Clay Court Championships: Adolfo Vallejo vs Zachary Svajda Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Broncos (-12.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
1899 Hoffenheim vs. FC Augsburg: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Chiefs vs. Broncos Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Girona FC vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Ohio State (-31.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Grand Canyon Antelopes vs. Wyoming Cowboys Jun 17 $148 −$148 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-14? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Senshi Esports Club vs Frites Esports Club (BO3) - Road Of Legend Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Nuggets vs. Pacers Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Pistons: O/U 235.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Jun 17 $56 −$56 -100%
Rangers vs. Sharks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Merida Open Akron: Jasmine Paolini vs Priscilla Hon Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Spread: Texans (-14.5) Jun 17 $120 −$120 -100%
Spread: Bowling Green Falcons (-11.5) Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Steelers vs. Lions Jun 17 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: Solary vs BK ROG Esports (BO1) - LFL Invitational Souper Group Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
O/U 49.5 Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs Team Envy (BO3) - Esports World Cup America Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $74 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 36¢ $44 17h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 47¢ $24 19h
Ali Al Hamadi: 1+ goals BUY No 88¢ $25 19h
Aymen Hussein: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $37 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $12 19h
Aymen Hussein: 1+ goals BUY No 86¢ $6 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $4 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 42¢ $10 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 73¢ $37 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 40¢ $6 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $6 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $6 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 55¢ $16 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $71 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $20 19h
Antonio Nusa: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $36 19h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $10 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $6 20h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY No 36¢ $2 20h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $29 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $16 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $33 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $27 40h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $29 40h
Chris Wood: 1+ goals BUY No 75¢ $38 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Under 42¢ $20 40h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Under 49¢ $1 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $661.61 · official $661.69 (match) · 3500 history records