Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
E5 0xe50d…0974 sports 72 markets active 0h ago coverage 780d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$93 (-1%) realized −$92 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate42%28W / 38L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$37
14 days−$27
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$73
other 23% −$5
politics 14% −$1
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
world 1% −$12
economics 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -27.9% -34.8% 38% 21% -34.0%
≤30d 28 -27.7% -34.5% 39% 25% -26.7%
≤90d 29 -30.1% -36.8% 38% 24% -46.9%
all 66 -9.3% -17.9% 42% 20% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.9% 20% -10.6%
10% -25.8% 20% -19.2%
15% -32.9% 14% -27.0%
20% -39.5% 12% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

780d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses28 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)66 / 72
History coverage780d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs K27 46¢ 66¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+42%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 61¢ 62¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 70¢ 69¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? Yes 11¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? No 85¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $5 +$4 +68%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 13 $2 $0 -32%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $7 −$1 -8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -30%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 13 $6 $0 -1%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$5 +119%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +35%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $7 −$6 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $14 −$1 -5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $9 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $6 $0 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $7 +$3 +37%
ITF San Gregorio: Dunja Maric vs Federica Bilardo Jun 09 $33 +$10 +31%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Hugo Dell May 22 $3 +$2 +65%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 25 $70 −$70 -100%
Thunder vs. Pistons Feb 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Ducks vs. Canucks Feb 25 $8 +$11 +138%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $216 −$1 -0%
Bucks vs. 76ers Jan 30 $26 +$7 +28%
Will Celta Vigo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 27 $200 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Hawks Jan 27 $7 +$9 +138%
Rockets vs. Pistons Jan 27 $7 +$11 +156%
Will F1 win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jan 23 $190 $0 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs Jan 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jan 23 $5 +$7 +127%
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Australian Open? Jan 21 $192 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Hornets Jan 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 14 $200 $0 +0%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Jan 14 $8 +$11 +138%
Pacers vs. Pistons Nov 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Nov 17 $7 +$1 +10%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 15 $7 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump’s approval rating be <44.5% on July 4? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 05 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 62¢ $3 12m
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 61¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 46¢ $2 3h
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $1 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 47¢ $2 4h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $4 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 65¢ $1 4h
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $1 4h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 70¢ $4 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 66¢ $1 4h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 34¢ $5 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 60¢ $9 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? SELL No 21¢ $1 3d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 51¢ $1 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? BUY No 31¢ $2 3d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Team Falcons 50¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 3d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 38¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $1 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No $1 3d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 45¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.36 · official $67.36 (match) · 197 history records