Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

E5
0xe50e…45c5
sports · 867 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$358 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$371 · open +$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$80
Realized−$371
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses433 / 420
Est. fees paid−$224
Open positions14
Markets (closed)853 / 867
History coverage14d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day239.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 14 History 853 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$295
14 days−$371
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on June 12? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 37¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 27¢ 34¢ $7 $9 +$2 (+30%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 38¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Yes 29¢ 34¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on June 12? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+203%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 13? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $12 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $4 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 12 $9 −$2 -22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $21 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $21 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 12 $6 +$1 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 81°F or below on June Jun 12 $15 +$4 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $22 +$6 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $26 +$15 +58%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $10 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 13? Jun 12 $6 −$3 -46%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 12 $0 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$22 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 $0 -11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$12 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$28 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $19 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $8 +$2 +24%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $10 $0 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 11 $20 −$19 -92%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +5%
ITF Madrid: Rebecca Munk Mortensen vs Marta Soriano Santiago Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $19 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $26 +$4 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 50% −$258
weather 35% +$75
other 10% −$60
crypto 5% −$84
politics 1% −$17
world 0% −$10
finance 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 13m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 16m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 29¢ $10 25m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL Yes 27¢ $2 25m
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 33¢ $0 30m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 26¢ $0 45m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 54m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 57m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL Yes 32¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL Yes 24¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 14? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 23¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $21 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY Yes 25¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 514 -5.4% -14.4% 48% 22% -11.8%
≤30d 853 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 25% -10.9%
≤90d 853 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 25% -10.9%
all 853 -1.4% -10.8% 51% 25% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover239.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 25% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 15% -19.5%
15% -27.1% 10% -27.2%
20% -34.3% 6% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.53 · official $79.53 (match) · 3500 history records