Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:23:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe510…0a33 crypto 183 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (201 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$116 (+4%) realized +$136 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR77%break-even
Win rate79%142W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day201.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$38
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (201 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +77%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 180 +2.1% -7.6% 79% 77% -10.1%
≤30d 180 +2.1% -7.6% 79% 77% -10.1%
≤90d 180 +2.1% -7.6% 79% 77% -10.1%
all 180 +2.1% -7.6% 79% 77% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover201.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.6% 77% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 54% -18.7%
15% -24.5% 23% -26.6%
20% -31.9% 9% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$136
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses142 / 38
Open positions3
Markets (closed)180 / 183
History coverage1d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day201.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 180 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Up 63¢ 43¢ $36 $25 −$11 (-32%)
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Up 85¢ 60¢ $27 $19 −$8 (-30%)
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$11 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$7 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $23 +$6 +28%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$8 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$18 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $44 +$8 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $44 +$11 +25%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$5 +18%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$9 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$3 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$11 +31%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$10 +50%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 28 $34 −$33 -99%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $20 +$10 +49%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$12 +43%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$16 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $28 −$28 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$15 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $27 +$8 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $34 +$18 +52%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $35 −$34 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$12 +32%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $20 −$20 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$7 +24%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$10 +35%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$13 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$8 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$43 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $28 +$5 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$6 +17%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +15%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$1 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $11 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $13 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $28 0m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $6 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $9 5m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $12 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $20 5m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $12 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $6 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $7 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 10m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $29 10m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $52 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $36 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $36 15m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $7 20m
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $16 20m
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $28 45m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $36 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $28 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $44 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.11 · official $49.43 · 370 history records