Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:34:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe512…5751 sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$906 (+4%) realized +$635 · open +$271
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$430per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$264est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$3,788now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$662
7 days+$2,391
14 days+$2,171
30 days+$1,859
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% +$1,989
other 36% +$140
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +40.4% +27.0% 33% 28% +11.4%
≤30d 34 +5.3% -4.8% 24% 21% +3.3%
≤90d 34 +5.3% -4.8% 24% 21% +3.3%
all 34 +5.3% -4.8% 24% 21% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 21% +3.3%
10% -13.9% 21% -6.6%
15% -22.2% 21% -15.7%
20% -29.8% 18% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 66% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -33% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$372 vs −$43 · ×8.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.66 per $1 lost it wins $2.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$3,788
Realized+$635
Unrealized+$271
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$264
Open positions4
Markets (closed)34 / 49
History coverage18d
Avg bet$430
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,500 $1,521 +$21 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $1,000 $1,201 +$201 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $1,000 $1,050 +$50 (+5%)
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $974 +$4 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,638 +$867 +53%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,016 −$88 -9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,519 −$31 -2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,417 +$1,092 +77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3,025 −$46 -2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a Jun 14 $103 +$510 +498%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $102 −$5 -5%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $89 +$134 +152%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 +$157 +510%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -22%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 2 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $269 −$33 -12%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 10 $194 −$14 -7%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $157 −$154 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 10 $170 −$12 -7%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 10 $102 −$8 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 09 $141 −$7 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 09 $203 −$12 -6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 09 $152 −$11 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 09 $202 −$8 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $95 +$66 +70%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 08 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $512 −$45 -9%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $406 +$145 +36%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 03 $21 −$20 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 30 $298 −$292 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 9m
Exact Score: England 2 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes $93 1h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombi BUY 30¢ $143 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $1,027 4h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $978 4h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $513 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 22h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $1,537 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 65¢ $1,638 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL 45¢ $927 35h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY 48¢ $1,016 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL 57¢ $1,488 35h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 AND France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY 57¢ $1,519 42h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will France win BUY 13¢ $205 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND France vs. Senega BUY 24¢ $314 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY 18¢ $205 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 98¢ $2,509 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,417 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2 BUY 15¢ $154 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY 53¢ $1,602 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 72¢ $2,979 2d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Will Ur BUY $119 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY 24¢ $256 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $3,025 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 22¢ $51 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 19¢ $123 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 38¢ $41 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 15¢ $31 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $98 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a BUY 16¢ $103 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,788.19 · official $3,928.19 · 103 history records