Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe513…5d90 other 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$28 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate64%21W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$115
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$132
other 28% −$155
politics 24% +$84
tech 6% +$44
sports 5% +$46
crypto 3% +$77
economics 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 29% -16.1%
≤30d 7 +0.2% -9.3% 43% 29% -16.1%
≤90d 17 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 29% -13.1%
all 33 +2.2% -7.5% 64% 27% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 27% -10.0%
10% -16.4% 12% -18.6%
15% -24.4% 9% -26.5%
20% -31.8% 3% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$40 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses21 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage273d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $71 $70 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $57 +$14 +24%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $60 −$2 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $185 −$125 -68%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 22 $180 +$5 +3%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $186 −$6 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $109 +$77 +70%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $139 −$29 -21%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 17 $173 −$35 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 13 $211 −$38 -18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 07 $274 −$63 -23%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 01 $261 +$14 +5%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 26 $223 +$37 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 18 $298 −$75 -25%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 18 $587 −$3 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in March? Apr 11 $267 +$32 +12%
Any of the stolen KitKats recovered by April 5? Apr 06 $251 +$16 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 01 $214 +$38 +18%
Iran leadership change by March 13? Mar 23 $196 +$17 +9%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 01 $185 +$12 +6%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Feb 24 $196 −$11 -6%
Will André Ventura qualify for the second round of the 2026 Portugal p Jan 23 $142 +$54 +38%
Will Luís Marques Mendes qualify for the second round of the 2026 Port Jan 07 $231 −$89 -39%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 31 $199 +$32 +16%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? Dec 12 $191 +$8 +4%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Dec 11 $139 +$52 +37%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Nov 20 $147 −$8 -5%
Will Jacob Frey win the 2025 Minneapolis mayoral election? Nov 06 $134 +$13 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $118 +$16 +14%
Will the Government shutdown end October 10-14? Oct 15 $112 +$6 +5%
Will the Government shutdown end October 6-9? Oct 10 $106 +$6 +5%
Will the Government shutdown end October 1-2? Oct 06 $105 +$2 +2%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Oct 01 $100 +$5 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on September 22? Sep 23 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $72 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $71 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 80¢ $57 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 70¢ $58 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 71¢ $60 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $59 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $185 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 95¢ $185 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 92¢ $180 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $180 35h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $186 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $109 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 55¢ $109 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $139 36d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $139 36d
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $173 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 61¢ $173 40d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $211 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $211 46d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $274 51d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? BUY Yes 95¢ $261 57d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun SELL Yes 95¢ $260 57d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun BUY Yes 82¢ $223 65d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? SELL Yes 33¢ $223 65d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $152 65d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 65d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $44 65d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? BUY Yes 44¢ $99 65d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY No 96¢ $287 70d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? SELL No 82¢ $285 72d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.39 · official $70.39 (match) · 75 history records