Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:42:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe516…1d31 sports 518 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+0%) realized +$17 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%333W / 179L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$117est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$5
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$32
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -0.7% -10.2% 77% 62% -12.5%
≤30d 150 +11.3% +0.7% 72% 49% -15.6%
≤90d 508 +8.5% -1.9% 65% 47% -10.0%
all 512 +8.5% -1.9% 65% 47% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 47% -9.8%
10% -11.2% 27% -18.5%
15% -19.8% 18% -26.3%
20% -27.7% 10% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$10 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$17
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses333 / 179
Est. fees paid−$117
Open positions6
Markets (closed)512 / 518
History coverage154d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 512 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann Yannick Hanfmann 63¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$4 (+59%)
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel Arthur Fery 88¢ 84¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-5%)
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Adrian Mannarino 60¢ 46¢ $7 $5 −$1 (-22%)
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Sho Shimabukuro 62¢ 44¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Marcos Giron 85¢ 60¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-30%)
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ 50¢ $7 $4 −$2 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Jun 16 $7 +$1 +17%
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon Jun 16 $7 +$2 +26%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $7 +$4 +55%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $7 +$1 +18%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $7 +$1 +13%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $7 +$1 +11%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $7 +$4 +62%
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $7 $0 +7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $7 +$1 +14%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $20 +$7 +37%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp Jun 14 $7 +$1 +20%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $7 +$3 +42%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $7 +$4 +55%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $7 +$3 +46%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $7 +$1 +17%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $20 $0 -2%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $7 +$1 +10%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $7 +$4 +57%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Mikhail Kukushkin Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $7 +$1 +20%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Aleksandar Vukic Jun 13 $7 +$3 +46%
Halle Open, Qualification: Tiago Pereira vs Tom Gentzsch Jun 13 $7 +$2 +24%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $20 +$12 +60%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $7 +$1 +11%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $7 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Marin Cilic Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $7 +$2 +27%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $7 +$1 +8%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $7 $0 +5%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $7 +$2 +32%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $9 +$5 +50%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs James McCabe Jun 11 $7 +$1 +8%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $7 −$7 -99%
Libema Open: Ugo Humbert vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Botic van de Zandschulp Jun 10 $7 +$1 +18%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $7 +$5 +66%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $7 +$1 +13%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $7 +$4 +65%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 09 $7 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Toby Samuel BUY Arthur Fery 88¢ $7 13m
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 77¢ $7 14m
Halle Open: Joao Fonseca vs Yannick Hanfmann BUY Yannick Hanfmann 63¢ $7 1h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Sho Shimabukuro 62¢ $7 1h
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 85¢ $7 1h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Brandon Nakashima 86¢ $7 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 60¢ $7 1h
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 85¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 79¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 88¢ $7 2h
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Frances Tiafoe 84¢ $7 21h
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov BUY Denis Shapovalov 64¢ $7 21h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 88¢ $7 22h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 90¢ $7 23h
Halle Open: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 45¢ $20 24h
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce BUY Terence Atmane 61¢ $7 24h
HSBC Championships: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Harry Wendelken BUY Botic van de Zandschulp 89¢ $7 24h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 93¢ $7 26h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur SELL Kamil Majchrzak 64¢ $20 46h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron BUY Rinky Hijikata 87¢ $7 47h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Giovanni Mp BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 83¢ $7 47h
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt BUY Alex Bolt 59¢ $7 47h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Kamil Majchrzak 51¢ $20 47h
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Tom Gentzsch BUY Martin Landaluce 89¢ $7 47h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 70¢ $7 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 64¢ $7 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 68¢ $7 2d
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut BUY Raphael Collignon 85¢ $7 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron SELL Daniel Evans 43¢ $19 2d
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 35¢ $20 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.70 · official $36.70 (match) · 1469 history records