trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 3 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 33% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +5.1% | -4.9% | 60% | 20% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +5.1% | -4.9% | 60% | 20% | -9.3% |
| all | 28 | +0.9% | -8.7% | 25% | 7% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.7% | 7% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -17.4% | 4% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -25.4% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -32.7% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 77¢ | 76¢ | $70 | $70 | −$0 (-1%) |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | No | 92¢ | 92¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 24 | $137 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 15? | Jun 23 | $71 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 23 | $60 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | Jun 11 | $2 | +$1 | +25% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 10 | $43 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele | Mar 25 | $23 | +$3 | +14% |
| Will Zuriel Oduwole win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? | Oct 11 | $23 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 06 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Oct 06 | $19 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Oct 06 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Oct 06 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 06 | $32 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? | Oct 06 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina | Oct 05 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? | Oct 05 | $16 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? | Oct 04 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? | Oct 04 | $16 | $0 | -1% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | Oct 02 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Oct 02 | $7 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | Oct 01 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Sep 30 | $47 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? | Sep 30 | $20 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? | Sep 29 | $22 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Sep 29 | $4 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Franco Parisi win the Chilean presidential election? | Sep 29 | $27 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? | Sep 28 | $26 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Sep 28 | $27 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla | Sep 27 | $26 | $0 | -0% |