Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:09:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe517…0aab sports 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate48%35W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$25
crypto 5% +$2
other 2% +$13
tech 1% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 73 -0.7% -10.2% 48% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 1% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 1% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 1% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses35 / 38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage556d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in May? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? May 06 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in January? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of January? Feb 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 06 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? Sep 18 $16 +$13 +79%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 03 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in April? May 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $694 −$1 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $700 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $701 −$1 -0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Mar 31 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Mar 31 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 31 $702 −$1 -0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 17 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump post 220-239 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will ETHBTC be between .032-.033 on February 7? Feb 08 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Feb 02 $2 $0 +0%
Was Trump hacked? Jan 20 $1 $0 +1%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will LA wildfires burn 60-70k acres by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Rangers vs. Predators Jan 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on January 10? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $215 on January 10? Jan 12 $1 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 12 $3 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 07 $1 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.15 on January 3? Jan 04 $1 $0 +0%
Utah vs. Wild Dec 19 $9 $0 -5%
Pacers vs. Suns Dec 19 $11 $0 +0%
Nets vs. Raptors Dec 19 $1 $0 -3%
Pelicans vs. Rockets Dec 19 $3 $0 -0%
Hornets vs. 76ers Dec 19 $2 $0 -4%
Blues vs. Lightning Dec 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2024-12-22? Dec 19 $10 $0 -1%
Thunder vs. Heat Dec 18 $4 $0 -0%
Titans vs. Colts Dec 18 $5 $0 -0%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Dec 18 $2 $0 -1%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21? Dec 18 $10 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY No 100¢ $25 1h
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $5 58d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $26 58d
Will Solana dip to $30 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 86d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 92d
Will Solana dip to $60 in January? BUY No 100¢ $5 146d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $230 end of January? BUY No 100¢ $25 149d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $30 208d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 95¢ $27 249d
Will Xtreme Gaming win The International 2025 Tournament? BUY No 56¢ $16 281d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 99¢ $3 300d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $1 330d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 362d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $2 392d
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 392d
Will Solana dip to $110 in May? BUY No 99¢ $2 393d
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Will Solana reach $300 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 431d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $693 448d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $694 448d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $699 448d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $700 448d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $700 448d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $701 448d
Ethereum all time high by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $2 448d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $2 448d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $702 448d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $702 449d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.15 · official $25.15 (match) · 203 history records