Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
E5 0xe51a…7f3e crypto 365 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate2%9W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$12
other 24% −$8
weather 15% −$6
politics 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
finance 2% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 100 +0.2% -9.4% 2% 1% -9.7%
≤90d 344 +0.1% -9.4% 3% 1% -9.6%
all 365 +0.1% -9.4% 2% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.6%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses9 / 356
Open positions0
Markets (closed)365 / 365
History coverage96d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 365 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 21? Jun 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 21? Jun 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? Jun 20 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? Jun 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 8-14? Jun 13 $57 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $58 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $53 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $57 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.60 June 1-7? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $56 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $59 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in June? Jun 06 $59 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $10 in June? Jun 06 $119 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 6? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $60 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $68,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 1? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 31? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 31? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 25-31? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 35°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $56 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C or below on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or higher on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $55 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 100¢ $57 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $57 2h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 22h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 22h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 22h
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 22h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 22h
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $56 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $56 22h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $57 22h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $57 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $55 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $55 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $55 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $55 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 805 history records