Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:30:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe51a…8a3b crypto 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+8%) realized +$81 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate78%21W / 6L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$241now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% +$24
other 29% −$16
politics 14% +$2
world 9% +$28
sports 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +96.4% +77.7% 100% 100% +95.6%
≤30d 20 +5.5% -4.5% 70% 60% +5.5%
≤90d 27 +6.1% -4.0% 78% 52% +1.6%
all 27 +6.1% -4.0% 78% 52% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 52% +1.6%
10% -13.2% 37% -8.1%
15% -21.5% 22% -17.0%
20% -29.2% 19% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.2 per $1 lost it wins $3.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$241
Realized+$81
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses21 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)27 / 39
History coverage37d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 66¢ $130 $114 −$16 (-12%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $31 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 95¢ $9 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 76¢ 79¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +59%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $10 +$14 +134%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $8 +$2 +20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $41 +$4 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? Jun 01 $10 +$10 +104%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? Jun 01 $8 +$2 +30%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $108 +$22 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 31 $8 +$2 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $9 +$1 +12%
Will XRP reach $1.35 on May 29? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 29 $71 +$4 +6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect May 29 $14 −$3 -22%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $30 +$20 +70%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $6 +$4 +71%
XRP Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $8 +$2 +32%
Solana Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on May 19? May 19 $7 +$3 +34%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 19? May 19 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 19? May 19 $114 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 19? May 19 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 19? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 18 $20 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $31 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 1h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $31 1h
Will Ghana reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $131 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 16h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 18h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 18h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 23h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY No 77¢ $47 23d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $3 24d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $6 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $8 24d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $4 24d
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 24d
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $6 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY No 50¢ $10 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? BUY No 49¢ $10 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $4 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 26d
Will XRP reach $1.35 on May 29? BUY No 66¢ $7 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 89¢ $6 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? BUY Up 89¢ $2 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? BUY No 56¢ $28 26d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 76¢ $75 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $241.03 · official $241.03 (match) · 107 history records