Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T06:29:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

E5 0xe51b…5cd4 sports 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL −$31 (-16%) realized −$31 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip

Net edge+14%after slip

Net WR25%break-even

Win rate25%2W / 6L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 146d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +25%

net ROI/market (all)+13.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+43.8%	+30.1%	29%	29%	+22.2%
≤30d	7	+43.8%	+30.1%	29%	29%	+22.2%
≤90d	7	+43.8%	+30.1%	29%	29%	+22.2%
all	8	+25.9%	+13.9%	25%	25%	-27.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+13.9%	25%	-27.3%
10%	+3.0%	25%	-34.3%
15%	-7.0%	25%	-40.6%
20%	-16.1%	25%	-46.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 71% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +35% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +26% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$52 vs −$23 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage

Net worth$33

Realized−$31

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)25%

Wins / losses2 / 6

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage146d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	61¢	60¢	$33	$33	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	Jun 18	$8	−$8	-98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 18	$18	−$18	-99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 18	$20	−$20	-98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$8	+$30	+365%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	−$20	-98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	Jun 15	$17	+$74	+442%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	Jan 24	$65	−$65	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	61¢	$33	1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw?	BUY Yes	30¢	$8	9h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw?	BUY Yes	17¢	$5	9h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	74¢	$8	14h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$20	26h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	53¢	$10	26h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	100¢	$38	29h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	21¢	$8	29h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	20¢	$20	3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca	BUY Justin Gaethje	18¢	$17	10d
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	BUY Yes	27¢	$65	145d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.73 · official $32.73 (match) · 12 history records