Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe51d…6eb7 politics 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$361per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$5
economics 28% −$4
other 23% −$3
sports 12% −$2
world 1% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 12 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 26 -0.9% -10.4% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 26 -0.9% -10.4% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage84d
Avg bet$361
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $65 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 17 $999 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $1,086 −$2 -0%
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 17 $1,057 −$1 -0%
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $56 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,000 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $49 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $22 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,006 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 21 $151 −$1 -1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Apr 18 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 18 $12 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will 2026 be the third-hottest year on record? Apr 16 $10 −$1 -8%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Apr 16 $2 $0 -8%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 16 $15 $0 -3%
Human moon landing in 2026? Apr 15 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 29 $91 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Mar 29 $44 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 29 $20 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Mar 25 $118 $0 -0%
Jerome Powell arrested by March 31? Mar 25 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $63 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $998 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $27 1h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $970 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $20 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,084 1h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $19 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 2h
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 2h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $790 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $33 2h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 100¢ $266 2h
Will Lucy Powell be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 100¢ $1,057 2h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,011 17h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $24 18h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $959 18h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $15 18h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $999 18h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $17 18h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $974 18h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $21 19h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $775 19h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $294 19h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 19h
Will Cody Gakpo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 19h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,071 19h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $1,111 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 37h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records