Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:39:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe51e…d11d crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$49 (-7%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate64%47W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day45.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$139
other 4% +$41
sports 3% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -7.4% -16.2% 64% 16% -24.3%
≤30d 73 -7.4% -16.2% 64% 16% -24.3%
≤90d 73 -7.4% -16.2% 64% 16% -24.3%
all 73 -7.4% -16.2% 64% 16% -24.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 16% -24.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 7% -31.5%
15% -31.6% 7% -38.2%
20% -38.3% 3% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses47 / 26
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)73 / 73
History coverage3d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day45.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 73 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 29 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 29 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 29 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 29 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$18 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$5 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$3 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $27 3h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 73¢ $15 9h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $54 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $70 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $51 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 215 history records