Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
E5 0xe51f…473d sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,166 (-23%) realized −$930 · open −$236
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$283per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$315
politics 37% −$201
other 15% −$763
finance 2% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-48.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -11.0% -19.5% 0% 0% -19.5%
≤90d 1 -11.0% -19.5% 0% 0% -19.5%
all 17 -43.4% -48.8% 18% 18% -32.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.8% 18% -32.3%
10% -53.7% 18% -38.8%
15% -58.2% 18% -44.7%
20% -62.3% 18% -50.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$217 vs −$130 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$930
Unrealized−$236
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage212d
Avg bet$283
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Under 57¢ 28¢ $455 $220 −$236 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W May 24 $1,800 −$198 -11%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 19 $162 −$162 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 Dec 18 $198 −$198 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Dec 01 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3) Dec 01 $104 +$127 +122%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 01 $107 −$3 -3%
Spread: Lions (-10.5) Nov 23 $284 −$177 -62%
Hurricanes vs. Sabres Nov 23 $292 −$8 -3%
Stars vs. Flames Nov 23 $129 +$163 +127%
UFC Fight Night: Topuria vs. Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Nov 23 $314 −$314 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 22 $99 −$87 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025 Nov 22 $39 −$37 -96%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 22 $123 −$123 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $144 −$144 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 20 Nov 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Hawaii vs. UNLV Nov 22 $479 +$360 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $461 1h
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W SELL Yes 52¢ $1,571 54d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 59¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 58¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 58¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 58¢ $100 55d
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W BUY Yes 58¢ $100 55d
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? BUY Yes 10¢ $78 181d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes 17¢ $162 182d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 20 BUY Yes $198 183d
Cavaliers vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 37¢ $230 199d
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3) SELL Imperial 100¢ $230 199d
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3) BUY Imperial 45¢ $104 200d
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? SELL Yes 37¢ $104 200d
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? BUY Yes 38¢ $107 200d
Spread: Lions (-10.5) SELL Lions 23¢ $82 208d
Spread: Lions (-10.5) SELL Lions 25¢ $25 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.62 · official $187.67 · 53 history records