Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:38:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E5 0xe520…e4e3 crypto 765 markets active 1h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,401 (-9%) realized −$1,398 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate57%433W / 330L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$358
14 days−$319
30 days−$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$755
crypto 32% −$418
sports 13% −$106
world 12% −$99
politics 5% −$1
finance 3% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -44.5% -49.8% 35% 27% -39.3%
≤30d 100 -11.3% -19.7% 61% 45% -18.6%
≤90d 336 -27.8% -34.7% 42% 35% -26.4%
all 763 -6.5% -15.4% 57% 42% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 42% -17.8%
10% -23.5% 29% -25.6%
15% -30.9% 20% -32.8%
20% -37.6% 13% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$11 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$1,398
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses433 / 330
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions2
Markets (closed)763 / 765
History coverage178d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 763 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Facundo Acosta 87¢ 74¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $40 +$6 +16%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$10 -40%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 +$31 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $62 +$32 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$11 +23%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $70 −$4 -6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $46 −$34 -75%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $48 −$47 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 +$4 +10%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Michael Zheng Jun 14 $30 −$10 -34%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 14 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 +$14 +21%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $41 −$7 -16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $35 −$35 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $41 +$27 +65%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $60 +$15 +24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $40 +$9 +21%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 +$21 +139%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $15 −$9 -56%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Marc-Andrea Huesler vs Gauthier Onclin Jun 07 $23 +$2 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $72 +$4 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $60 +$13 +21%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Russia win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $40 +$1 +3%
Birmingham: Sho Shimabukuro vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 05 $50 +$2 +5%
Perugia: Liam Broady vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Jun 03 $25 +$3 +10%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $37 +$27 +73%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $10 +$1 +6%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $20 +$17 +83%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $5 −$2 -41%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $25 −$8 -32%
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $19 −$18 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $15 −$13 -84%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $29 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 31 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 30 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 30 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET May 30 $5 +$3 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska BUY Facundo Acosta 87¢ $20 32m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz SELL Taylor Fritz 100¢ $46 37m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 1h
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 86¢ $40 1h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 10h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 25¢ $15 11h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $5 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 12h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $105 13h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $50 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $24 16h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 17h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 17h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $62 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $62 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $50 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $46 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $37 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 15¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $20 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $33 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 39h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 40h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $19 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.68 · official $41.49 (match) · 2389 history records