Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe521…9cae sports 485 markets active 0h ago coverage 223d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$327 (-1%) realized −$291 · open −$36
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate32%155W / 326L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$559est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$276
7 days+$178
14 days+$178
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$468
other 38% −$697
crypto 8% +$120
world 1% −$400
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +8.7% -1.7% 43% 43% +11.8%
≤30d 21 +2.3% -7.4% 38% 38% +1.1%
≤90d 297 -19.4% -27.1% 32% 29% -29.9%
all 481 -6.6% -15.5% 32% 31% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 31% -10.2%
10% -23.6% 30% -18.8%
15% -30.9% 28% -26.6%
20% -37.7% 24% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$204 vs −$98 · ×2.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$291
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses155 / 326
Est. fees paid−$559
Open positions4
Markets (closed)481 / 485
History coverage223d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig Matej Dodig 16¢ 12¢ $49 $35 −$14 (-28%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Elvina Kalieva Elvina Kalieva 11¢ $45 $33 −$12 (-26%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jack Pinnington Jones 10¢ $34 $18 −$16 (-46%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic Rebecca Sramkova 46¢ 80¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 277 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima Jun 24 $50 +$18 +36%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle Jun 24 $64 +$56 +88%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones Jun 24 $127 +$130 +102%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 24 $49 −$29 -59%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $58 +$94 +162%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu Jun 24 $49 −$48 -98%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 24 $53 +$54 +101%
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 23 $1 $0 -12%
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon Jun 22 $56 −$55 -98%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $49 −$12 -24%
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone Jun 22 $51 +$117 +228%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 22 $58 −$58 -100%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Vicenza: Mika Brunold vs Massimo Giunta May 26 $50 −$49 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jaime Faria vs Denis Shapovalov May 26 $51 −$50 -98%
Centurion: Luc Koenig vs Dominik Palan May 26 $70 −$68 -98%
Kosice: Maks Kasnikowski vs Franco Roncadelli May 26 $50 +$20 +39%
Roland Garros WTA: Dalma Galfi vs Mayar Sherif May 26 $51 −$50 -97%
Chisinau: Laslo Djere vs Timofey Skatov May 26 $52 +$203 +388%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $52 −$51 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Mary Stoiana May 21 $50 −$48 -98%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Anhelina Kalinina vs Anna Bondar May 21 $74 −$48 -64%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 21 $23 −$22 -98%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Juan Carlos Prado May 21 $82 +$55 +67%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Alexis Galarneau vs Federico Cina May 21 $26 −$1 -5%
Geneva Open: Mariano Navone vs Jaume Munar May 21 $74 −$72 -98%
Istanbul: Daniel Michalski vs Benjamin Hassan May 21 $55 +$19 +35%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Michael Zheng May 21 $32 +$23 +70%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Marie Bouzkova vs Ann Li May 21 $22 −$21 -97%
Istanbul: Andrej Nedic vs Mert Alkaya May 21 $13 −$9 -65%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Suzan Lamens May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Istanbul: Mili Poljicak vs Maxim Mrva May 21 $50 +$132 +266%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Alastair Gray May 21 $53 −$52 -99%
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Alex Hernandez May 21 $52 −$51 -97%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu May 19 $52 −$51 -97%
Cervia: Filippo Romano vs Enrico Dalla Valle May 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Istanbul: Benjamin Hassan vs Filip Jianu May 19 $27 −$26 -98%
Cervia: Tommaso Compagnucci vs Li Tu May 19 $53 −$52 -98%
Cervia: Stefan Dostanic vs Francesco Forti May 19 $51 +$2 +4%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Hamish Stewart vs Aditya Balsekar May 19 $28 −$28 -98%
Istanbul: Paulo Dos Santos vs Denis Yevseyev May 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Bengaluru 3: Takuya Kumasaka vs Taiyo Yamanaka May 19 $25 +$28 +110%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: James McCabe vs Zdenek Kolar May 19 $50 −$48 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Maximus Jones vs Sasikumar Mukund May 19 $50 +$22 +44%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 −$98 -97%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Arthur G May 17 $46 −$45 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $153 −$150 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Robin Montgomery vs Elvina Kalieva BUY Elvina Kalieva 11¢ $46 14m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic SELL Rebecca Sramkova 86¢ $78 27m
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima SELL Sebastian Gima 40¢ $68 27m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Rebecca Sramkova vs Teodora Kostovic BUY Rebecca Sramkova 46¢ $50 45m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Matej Dodig BUY Matej Dodig 16¢ $50 48m
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Sebastian Gima BUY Sebastian Gima 28¢ $50 55m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Jack Pinnington Jones BUY Jack Pinnington Jones 10¢ $35 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle SELL Vilius Gaubas 48¢ $121 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones SELL Anastasia Gasanova 62¢ $94 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva SELL Elizara Yaneva 10¢ $20 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 23¢ $14 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Katie Volynets vs Elizara Yaneva BUY Elizara Yaneva 22¢ $35 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones BUY Anastasia Gasanova 32¢ $50 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Henry Searle BUY Vilius Gaubas 25¢ $64 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones SELL Anastasia Gasanova 31¢ $163 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Anastasia Gasanova vs Emerson Jones BUY Anastasia Gasanova 14¢ $77 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Tereza Valentova 99¢ $152 3h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Claire Liu BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 34¢ $49 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Tereza Valentova 37¢ $58 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo SELL Juan Manuel Cerundolo 100¢ $107 4h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Arthur Fery vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo BUY Juan Manuel Cerundolo 49¢ $53 4h
Targu Mures: Sergey Fomin vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Sergey Fomin 13¢ $51 32h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas SELL Eero Vasa 13¢ $1 32h
Plovdiv: Eero Vasa vs Manoj Dhamne Manas BUY Eero Vasa 14¢ $1 33h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon BUY Ignacio Monzon 14¢ $5 46h
Piracicaba: Matias Soto vs Ignacio Monzon BUY Ignacio Monzon 17¢ $51 46h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez SELL Alex Hernandez 29¢ $37 46h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone SELL Luca Castelnuovo 31¢ $169 46h
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez BUY Alex Hernandez 37¢ $49 47h
Targu Mures: Luca Castelnuovo vs Franco Agamenone BUY Luca Castelnuovo $51 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.35 · official $105.12 · 878 history records