Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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E5 0xe527…c8cb sports 219 markets active 0h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$105 (+4%) realized +$104 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate24%48W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$62
7 days+$83
14 days+$88
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$106
other 7% +$123
crypto 0% −$9
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 +56.1% +41.2% 22% 18% +38.4%
≤30d 86 +12.8% +2.1% 20% 15% -7.6%
≤90d 202 -13.1% -21.4% 24% 17% -8.9%
all 202 -13.1% -21.4% 24% 17% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 17% -8.9%
10% -28.9% 16% -17.6%
15% -35.8% 13% -25.6%
20% -42.1% 13% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses48 / 154
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions4
Markets (closed)202 / 219
History coverage72d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 202 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+18%)
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Flavio Cobolli 18¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 $0 -8%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $2 +$26 +1264%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $5 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $2 $0 -23%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 $0 -21%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 +$14 +703%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$2 -36%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 +$6 +277%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 +$2 +90%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +53%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 +$53 +2595%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$18 +890%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $12 +$11 +94%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 $0 -13%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 $0 -19%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 $0 -13%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 $0 -8%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$21 +403%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $3 −$1 -35%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $9 −$9 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 18¢ $2 3m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 5h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 33¢ $2 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 5h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 7¢ $1 9h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AN BUY 11¢ $1 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 SELL 93¢ $28 12h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 7¢ $1 14h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 7¢ $2 14h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $2 15h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end BUY 20¢ $2 16h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY 19¢ $2 16h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 26h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 26¢ $1 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $1 27h
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 33¢ $3 33h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.59 · official $16.59 · 690 history records