Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe528…aefc crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$83 (+3%) realized +$83 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate81%50W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$128
weather 11% −$6
crypto 11% −$20
other 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 25% -3.8%
≤30d 4 +6.6% -3.5% 100% 25% -3.8%
≤90d 11 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 18% -3.9%
all 62 -5.5% -14.5% 81% 45% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 45% -6.8%
10% -22.7% 16% -15.7%
15% -30.2% 5% -23.8%
20% -37.0% 2% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$50 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$83
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses50 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)62 / 62
History coverage152d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 62 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? Jun 27 $26 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $24 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? Jun 24 $21 +$3 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 23? May 23 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1? May 04 $17 +$2 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 30? Apr 30 $16 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? Apr 01 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30? Mar 30 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 30? Mar 30 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 21? Mar 29 $14 $0 +2%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Mar 21 $13 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4? Mar 04 $33 −$21 -63%
Spurs vs. Nets Feb 28 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Feb 21 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Feb 21 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Feb 21 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Feb 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Feb 21 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Feb 21 $20 −$6 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Feb 21 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Feb 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Feb 21 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Feb 21 $10 +$3 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? SELL No 78¢ $26 5m
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 27? BUY No 75¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 25? BUY No 94¢ $24 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 24? BUY No 86¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $21 2d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 96¢ $20 3d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on May 23? BUY No 96¢ $19 35d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1? BUY Yes 87¢ $17 56d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 30? BUY No 95¢ $16 58d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? SELL No 100¢ $16 86d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 16°C on April 1? BUY No 93¢ $15 87d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30? SELL No 100¢ $15 88d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30? BUY No 94¢ $14 88d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 30? BUY No 96¢ $14 89d
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 21? BUY No 98¢ $14 97d
76ers vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 97¢ $13 109d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4? SELL No 33¢ $12 114d
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or below on March 4? BUY No 91¢ $33 114d
Spurs vs. Nets BUY Spurs 98¢ $32 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $10 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 125d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records