Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:50:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

E5 0xe528…d97f world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$22 (+2%) realized +$22 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip

Net edge-7%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate50%2W / 2L

Drawdown42%max

Avg bet$248per market

Trades / day1.1pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-6.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	+5.0%	-5.0%	50%	0%	-3.9%
≤30d	4	+3.2%	-6.6%	50%	0%	-7.6%
≤90d	4	+3.2%	-6.6%	50%	0%	-7.6%
all	4	+3.2%	-6.6%	50%	0%	-7.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-6.6%	0%	-7.6%
10%	-15.5%	0%	-16.4%
15%	-23.7%	0%	-24.5%
20%	-31.2%	0%	-31.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 70% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +2% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +3% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.67 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.35 per $1 lost it wins $3.35

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$22

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses2 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)4 / 4

History coverage9d

Avg bet$248

Trades / day1.1

Drawdown42%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 4 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	Jun 22	$56	$0	+0%
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	Jun 22	$91	+$9	+10%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$419	+$21	+5%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	Jun 13	$428	−$9	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL Yes	6¢	$29	8m
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	SELL Yes	6¢	$28	8m
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$29	1h
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30?	BUY Yes	6¢	$28	1h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	SELL Yes	11¢	$100	1h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	BUY Yes	10¢	$48	3h
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	BUY Yes	10¢	$42	3h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland?	BUY No	95¢	$419	9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	SELL No	92¢	$419	9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	BUY No	94¢	$428	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 11 history records