Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:41:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
E5 0xe52c…01f4 sports 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 36d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$47,163 (+35%) realized +$52,952 · open −$5,789
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%54W / 53L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,240per market
Trades / day23.3pace
Fees−$2,334est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,491now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$602
30 days−$1,441
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$32,204
other 1% +$8,124
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 33 +41.4% +28.0% 39% 39% -14.0%
≤90d 107 +39.2% +26.0% 50% 50% +22.9%
all 107 +39.2% +26.0% 50% 50% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.0% 50% +22.9%
10% +13.9% 50% +11.1%
15% ← realistic here +2.9% 49% +0.4%
20% -7.2% 46% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,784) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,919 vs −$1,085 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$1,491
Realized+$52,952
Unrealized−$5,789
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses54 / 53
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2,334
Open positions3
Markets (closed)107 / 110
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1,240
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A 9INE 48¢ 28¢ $2,293 $1,324 −$969 (-42%)
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Betclic Apogee Esports 41¢ $2,050 $162 −$1,888 (-92%)
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Grind Back 36¢ $2,937 $4 −$2,933 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $429 −$420 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $907 −$904 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $620 +$722 +116%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $768 +$8,544 +1113%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta May 31 $485 −$478 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q May 31 $1,062 −$1,058 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 30 $405 +$1,095 +270%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $1,974 −$1,966 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) May 30 $1,375 −$1,375 -100%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs FURIA Esports (+1.5) May 30 $1 +$4 +344%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qual May 30 $1,066 +$434 +41%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD - Map 1 Winner May 30 $716 +$384 +54%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 29 $978 −$961 -98%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G May 29 $131 +$196 +150%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $945 −$945 -100%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 29 $1,656 +$1,424 +86%
Valorant: Division One vs Azure Dragon Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 29 $467 −$463 -99%
Valorant: Division One vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North Americ May 29 $243 −$239 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $261 +$1,740 +668%
Valorant: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion Black - Map 2 Winner May 28 $89 −$88 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 28 $401 +$850 +212%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $1,040 −$1,020 -98%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL North A May 26 $159 −$159 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Dynamo Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: St May 26 $272 −$267 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $980 +$1,270 +130%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $1,190 −$1,188 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $1,831 +$1,166 +64%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $3,276 −$3,223 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $1,792 −$1,773 -99%
Valorant: Joblife vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Playoffs May 25 $499 +$601 +120%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $955 −$940 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Roman Safiullin May 25 $345 −$345 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $2,084 −$2,062 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $960 +$3,036 +316%
Game Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) May 24 $2,263 +$2,832 +125%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $1,982 +$6,009 +303%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner May 23 $1,606 +$1,395 +87%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 23 $354 −$346 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs NRG (BO5) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 23 $1,077 −$1,069 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner May 23 $2,010 +$990 +49%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $2,283 +$13,217 +579%
Game Handicap: IG (-2.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+2.5) May 23 $1,450 +$858 +59%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 23 $2,429 +$1,567 +64%
Game Handicap: IG (-1.5) vs ThunderTalk Gaming (+1.5) May 23 $1,225 +$2,271 +185%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $3,250 +$1,745 +54%
Valorant: T1 vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qu May 23 $820 −$820 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 3 Winner May 23 $502 −$502 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Xtreme Gaming - Game 2 Winner May 23 $980 −$980 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 23 $1,084 −$1,084 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) May 23 $1,567 −$1,567 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $245 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $540 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $180 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $2 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $113 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 48¢ $1,462 2h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - DraculaN Group BUY Betclic Apogee Esports 41¢ $2,086 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $46 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $1,848 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $94 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY 9INE 47¢ $725 2h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $22 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 30¢ $429 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $372 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $22 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $1 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $5 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $320 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $14 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $9 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $7 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $1 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 32¢ $49 9d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 29¢ $106 9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $1,342 9d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $620 10d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 92¢ $338 15d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 92¢ $184 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,490.69 · official $1,490.69 (match) · 927 history records