Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:26:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
E5 0xe52f…c610 crypto 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$91 (+12%) realized +$91 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 37L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$215
7 days+$211
14 days+$211
30 days+$211
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$193
other 5% −$7
sports 2% +$7
politics 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 47% +18.5%
≤30d 38 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 47% +18.5%
≤90d 38 -6.7% -15.6% 50% 47% +18.5%
all 64 -19.3% -27.0% 42% 38% +13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 38% +13.8%
10% -34.0% 36% +2.9%
15% -40.4% 31% -7.1%
20% -46.2% 25% -16.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +26% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×3.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.63 per $1 lost it wins $2.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 37
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage583d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $137 +$89 +65%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $116 +$40 +35%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$3 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -6%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $91 +$39 +43%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $12 +$5 +45%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 +$2 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $37 +$28 +77%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $59 +$12 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$4 -18%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$30 +156%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $31 +$19 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +206%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $72-80m on 3-day opening weekend? Feb 27 $0 $0 -100%
Will 'Sonic 3' gross more than $80m on 3-day opening weekend? Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Dec 13-20? Dec 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Dec 13-20? Dec 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Dec 13-20? Dec 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Dec 13-20? Dec 20 $0 $0 +106%
Will trump tweet 1-2 times Nov 29-Dec 6? Dec 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Will trump tweet 3-4 times Nov 29-Dec 6? Dec 05 $6 $0 -1%
Ethereum all time high in Q4 2024? Dec 04 $1 $0 +4%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get between 50m-75m views on day 1? Dec 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast x Ronaldo video get less than 50m views on day 1? Dec 02 $10 −$5 -48%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k today? Nov 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $52 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $136 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 56¢ $20 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $15 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 232 history records