Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:49:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe530…379c sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 305d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$261 (-22%) realized −$836 · open +$575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate12%2W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$893now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 305d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$119
sports 28% +$458
crypto 25% −$265
economics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-53.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -53.6% -58.0% 7% 7% -46.3%
≤30d 15 -53.6% -58.0% 7% 7% -46.3%
≤90d 15 -53.6% -58.0% 7% 7% -46.3%
all 16 -48.7% -53.6% 12% 12% -45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.6% 12% -45.4%
10% -58.0% 12% -50.6%
15% -62.1% 6% -55.4%
20% -65.8% 6% -59.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -41% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$166 vs −$42 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

305d coverage
Net worth$893
Realized−$836
Unrealized+$575
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses2 / 14
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions6
Markets (closed)16 / 22
History coverage305d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Under 25¢ 86¢ $208 $721 +$512 (+246%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 52¢ $10 $74 +$64 (+642%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $24 $23 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $144 −$140 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $56 −$55 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $68 −$66 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $55 +$329 +596%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $137 −$134 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $56 −$55 -99%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$8 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $16 −$16 -99%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 18 $10 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $204 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $205 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $9 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $215 14h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 14¢ $31 23h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $31 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 27h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $26 27h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 27h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 9¢ $21 27h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 27h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 27h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 27h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 36¢ $31 27h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $137 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $56 2d
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $16 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 14¢ $17 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $892.65 · official $892.65 (match) · 38 history records