Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe532…f9b9 weather 1458 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$781 (+1%) realized +$778 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate87%1249W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,348now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$169
7 days−$8
14 days+$68
30 days+$844
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$712
other 7% −$76
sports 2% +$1,850
crypto 1% −$37
politics 1% −$29
world 0% −$119
economics 0% −$151
finance 0% −$1
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -1.5% -10.9% 75% 31% -9.8%
≤30d 150 +0.2% -9.4% 94% 6% -6.6%
≤90d 841 -17.4% -25.3% 78% 4% -10.1%
all 1441 -1.2% -10.6% 87% 23% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 23% -9.0%
10% -19.2% 13% -17.7%
15% -27.0% 9% -25.6%
20% -34.1% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$21 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$1,348
Realized+$778
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1249 / 192
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions17
Markets (closed)1441 / 1458
History coverage275d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 1441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $250 $250 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 73¢ 72¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+5%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 90¢ 91¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 84¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+42%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$74 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$155 +76%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $250 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $68 −$67 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $101 +$46 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 11 $130 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? Jun 10 $140 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? Jun 10 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 9? Jun 10 $250 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 86°F or higher on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $26 +$2 +10%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $200 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 08 $101 +$21 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 94°F or higher on June 6? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 94°F or higher on June 6? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 6? Jun 08 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 6? Jun 08 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 5? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $170 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 5? Jun 06 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 5? Jun 06 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Jun Jun 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 05 $120 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 05 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 4? Jun 05 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on June 4? Jun 05 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on June 3? Jun 04 $200 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $140 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $250 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $102 33h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 33h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $203 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $68 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $250 4d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $250 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $250 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $100 4d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 6d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $250 6d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $250 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY No 100¢ $250 6d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $250 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 62¢ $101 7d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $130 9d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $200 9d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $200 9d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $200 9d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $250 10d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $200 10d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $140 10d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $250 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,347.85 · official $1,347.60 (match) · 3339 history records