Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe533…8924 other 31 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 29L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$452per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$4
other 28% −$5
culture 14% −$3
world 12% −$2
crypto 8% −$2
sports 6% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 31 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$825) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage74d
Avg bet$452
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $26 $0 -0%
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 16 $38 $0 -0%
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $937 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $57 $0 +0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $945 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $981 −$2 -0%
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 14 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 14 $997 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $66 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 13 $25 −$1 -3%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $23 $0 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 17 $766 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $41 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $834 $0 +0%
Will Kim Eun-hye win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election Apr 17 $818 −$1 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Reform Party (RP) win the 2026 South Korean local elections? Apr 16 $818 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $791 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $825 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $790 −$1 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 15 $767 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 09 $165 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 09 $65 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 3? Apr 03 $11 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 620-639 tweets in April 2026? Apr 03 $174 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 4? Apr 03 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $26 5m
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 13m
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 21m
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 40m
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $38 49m
Will Nasir Hosseini be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 55m
Will Jorge Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $695 1h
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $241 1h
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Rodrygo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $937 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 32h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $12 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 32h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $993 32h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 32h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $742 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 32h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $201 33h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 33h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $945 33h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $979 47h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $47 47h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $20 47h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $934 47h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 99¢ $1,045 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $14 2d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $16 2d
Will Félix Auger-Aliassime be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 103 history records