Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:05:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe533…5833 other 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$242 (-8%) realized −$12 · open −$230
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate62%25W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$324now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$44
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$131
politics 30% −$116
world 16% +$59
economics 11% −$44
sports 4% +$3
tech 2% −$50
culture 1% +$30
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -36.6% -42.7% 33% 33% +6.6%
≤30d 15 -36.6% -42.7% 33% 33% +6.6%
≤90d 21 -35.7% -41.8% 38% 29% -33.9%
all 40 -14.7% -22.8% 62% 25% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 25% -10.3%
10% -30.2% 20% -18.8%
15% -36.9% 20% -26.7%
20% -43.1% 12% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$23 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$324
Realized−$12
Unrealized−$230
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses25 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)40 / 63
History coverage115d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Yes 68¢ 48¢ $150 $106 −$44 (-29%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $90 $43 −$47 (-52%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 68¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 44¢ 2¢ $150 $8 −$142 (-95%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) Türkiye 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $30 −$1 -2%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 $0 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$17 +55%
Spread: New Zealand (-5.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-3.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-3.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Sweden (-5.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) Jun 20 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$16 +53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$13 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 19 $50 +$42 +84%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Apr 13 $250 −$250 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Apr 01 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4% Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Mar 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 24 $590 +$86 +15%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Mar 23 $100 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will Social Democrats win the most seats in the Danish Folketing in th Mar 19 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 18 $8 −$1 -18%
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31? Mar 17 $100 +$48 +48%
Will Rachida Dati win the Paris mayor election? Mar 17 $20 +$2 +9%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 17 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $40 +$30 +75%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of March 2 above $275? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of March 2 above $155? Mar 05 $2 $0 +2%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 05 $380 $0 +0%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 4? Mar 04 $305 +$10 +3%
Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas? Mar 04 $21 +$3 +17%
Will Trump post "President DJT" on Truth Social this week? (March 8) Mar 04 $2 $0 +2%
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of February Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 02 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: England 0 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 0 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 1h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 90¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $30 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $30 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 44h
Spread: Türkiye (-3.5) BUY Türkiye 2¢ $1 44h
Spread: New Zealand (-5.5) BUY New Zealand 1¢ $1 44h
Spread: IR Iran (-3.5) BUY IR Iran 0¢ $1 44h
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 0¢ $1 44h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 10¢ $1 44h
Spread: Sweden (-5.5) BUY Sweden 1¢ $1 44h
Spread: Curaçao (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 0¢ $2 44h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $324.25 · official $324.26 (match) · 136 history records