Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:27:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
E5 0xe535…5e80 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate22%4W / 14L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,210per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 56% −$19
economics 35% +$1
other 5% +$1
sports 4% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.5%
all 18 -0.0% -9.5% 22% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$991) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses4 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage185d
Avg bet$1,210
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 26 $34 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $188 +$2 +1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $980 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 12 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $1,979 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $981 +$4 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $982 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $984 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $985 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 23 $991 −$6 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $993 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $6,953 +$2 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $995 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $34 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 51d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 59d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $95 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $52 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $36 79d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $92 93d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 93d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $91 95d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $979 121d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $980 124d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $980 132d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $981 133d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $981 134d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $982 135d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $982 136d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $983 137d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $983 138d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $984 139d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $984 140d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $985 141d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $985 142d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $981 143d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $981 144d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $982 145d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $982 146d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $983 147d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $982 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.09 · official $41.09 (match) · 85 history records