Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe536…3ba8 crypto 1315 markets active 0h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 91d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate63%824W / 491L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day31.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$32
7 days+$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$100
weather 4% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 120 -15.0% -23.1% 54% 35% -7.5%
≤30d 220 -12.6% -20.9% 56% 27% -11.0%
≤90d 1174 -8.2% -17.0% 60% 50% -13.6%
all 1315 -4.8% -13.9% 63% 53% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 53% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 37% -19.8%
15% -29.7% 11% -27.5%
20% -36.6% 6% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses824 / 491
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1315 / 1315
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day31.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1315 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $39 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$4 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$6 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 17? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL No 90¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $6 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $8 16m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? SELL No 82¢ $2 21m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 16? SELL No 60¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $28 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $8 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $16 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 17? SELL No 83¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 17? SELL No 84¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 17? SELL No 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records