Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe538…2fda crypto 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (703 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day703.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (703 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 29% -9.9%
≤30d 38 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 29% -9.9%
≤90d 38 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 29% -9.9%
all 38 -10.2% -18.7% 50% 29% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover703.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.7% 29% -9.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.5% 18% -18.5%
15% -33.6% 13% -26.4%
20% -40.1% 8% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage1d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day703.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 26¢ 60¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+126%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 72¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Down 75¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+33%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$10 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$3 -16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 +$2 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$2 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$3 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $7 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $75 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$10 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$2 -24%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $9 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$13 +51%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$2 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -54%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $0 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 93¢ $0 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $2 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 53¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 56¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 70¢ $3 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.73 · official $13.85 (match) · 728 history records