Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
E5 0xe53a…06eb tech 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 72d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,043now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 72d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 35% +$9
crypto 34% +$3
finance 31% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.5% 100% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 +0.4% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
all 9 +1.0% -8.6% 100% 0% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 0% -8.6%
10% -17.4% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs — no data
Profit factor
no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$1,043
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage72d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $343 $343 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $296 $299 +$3 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $220 $219 −$1 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $35 by end of June? Jun 17 $180 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $219 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 05 $268 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? Jun 05 $307 +$3 +1%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $241 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 06 $227 +$7 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 06 $236 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? May 06 $255 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 06 $300 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,042.51 · official $1,042.51 (match) · 24 history records