Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:00:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
E5 0xe544…e7ff sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$602 (+26%) realized +$606 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$176per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$613
other 18% −$12
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% +29.8%
≤30d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% +29.8%
≤90d 7 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% +29.8%
all 7 -3.3% -12.5% 43% 43% +29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 43% +29.8%
10% -20.9% 43% +17.3%
15% -28.6% 43% +6.0%
20% -35.6% 43% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +38% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$333 vs −$104 · ×3.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.41 per $1 lost it wins $2.41
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$497
Realized+$606
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions4
Markets (closed)7 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$176
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $346 $343 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 54¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $200 +$158 +79%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $34 −$7 -20%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $441 −$294 -67%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $161 −$94 -58%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $784 +$761 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $101 +$80 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $348 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Mexic BUY $10 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $200 23h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 28¢ $36 23h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $27 23h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 53¢ $142 45h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 24¢ $67 45h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 81¢ $441 47h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $51 47h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $101 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $101 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 51¢ $60 2d
Will Spain score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $182 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $101 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $784 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $497.06 · official $542.06 · 22 history records