Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
E5 0xe545…cfe9 crypto 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 533d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$92 (+3%) realized +$91 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate93%27W / 2L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$89per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$65
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 37% +$6
world 30% +$78
politics 12% +$3
other 12% +$3
tech 9% −$4
sports 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 +5.3% -4.8% 83% 17% -3.1%
≤90d 10 +5.4% -4.6% 90% 20% -3.3%
all 29 +2.7% -7.1% 93% 10% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.1% 10% -6.5%
10% -16.0% 0% -15.4%
15% -24.1% 0% -23.6%
20% -31.5% 0% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×11.22 per $1 lost it wins $11.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

533d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$91
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses27 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)29 / 30
History coverage533d
Avg bet$89
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? No 85¢ 86¢ $51 $52 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 17 $202 +$3 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $351 +$62 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $74 +$1 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $231 −$4 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $73 +$2 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $66 +$7 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $55 +$11 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $54 +$1 +1%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 03 $54 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 08 $54 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by June 30? Mar 26 $52 +$2 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 23 $205 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Mar 10 $117 −$5 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 08 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 February 23-March 1? Mar 08 $35 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Mar 01 $45 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 in January? Feb 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 26? Jan 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30? Dec 26 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95k in October? Nov 29 $44 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5200 in September? Oct 29 $106 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5800 in August? Sep 29 $106 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2200 in July? Aug 26 $105 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jul 25 $104 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 21 $104 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 30 $97 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Pelicans Apr 14 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 12? Apr 12 $101 +$2 +2%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Santa Monica by Sunday? Jan 13 $25 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $51 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 73¢ $204 10d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 72¢ $202 10d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 85¢ $351 17d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 61¢ $227 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $109 18d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 61¢ $122 18d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? BUY No 98¢ $74 18d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $73 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $66 41d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $55 51d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 56d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $54 73d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $54 80d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $35 91d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $19 91d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $54 93d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $52 95d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $12 96d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 100¢ $40 97d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 100d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 100d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $2 100d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $33 100d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $52 101d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $52 103d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $52 105d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $52 106d
Trump out as President by March 31? SELL No 99¢ $50 107d
Trump out as President by March 31? BUY No 98¢ $50 109d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.77 · official $51.77 (match) · 77 history records