Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:17:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
E5 0xe548…a9fe sports 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$58,910 (-16%) realized −$64,228 · open +$5,318
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%18W / 23L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8,741per market
Trades / day44.6pace
Fees−$3,365est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$22,523now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16,275
7 days−$17,060
14 days−$45,300
30 days−$64,005
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$16,344
other 19% −$34,068
crypto 5% −$8,275
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-22.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -44.3% -49.6% 36% 36% -30.5%
≤30d 41 -14.5% -22.6% 44% 44% -26.7%
≤90d 41 -14.5% -22.6% 44% 44% -26.7%
all 41 -14.5% -22.6% 44% 44% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.6% 44% -26.7%
10% -30.0% 41% -33.7%
15% ← realistic here -36.8% 34% -40.1%
20% -43.0% 24% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$11,254) neutral
Persistence
early +5% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4,970 vs −$6,672 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$22,523
Realized−$64,228
Unrealized+$5,318
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses18 / 23
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$3,365
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage17d
Avg bet$8,741
Trades / day44.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Team Liquid 76¢ 100¢ $17,205 $22,523 +$5,318 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 29 $10,372 +$4,634 +45%
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 29 $1,467 −$1,467 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $19,980 +$6,500 +32%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $4,590 −$4,489 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11,473 −$11,254 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $4,975 −$4,900 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5,300 −$5,300 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5,600 +$4,400 +79%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,185 +$1,815 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $4,775 −$4,700 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,353 −$2,300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $24,439 +$5,561 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13,121 −$12,900 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $26,226 −$9,226 -35%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $20,065 −$10,610 -53%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 19 $8,595 −$8,463 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10,550 −$10,400 -99%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $5,156 +$5,430 +105%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,696 −$1,696 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3,800 +$6,200 +163%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $12,681 +$4,313 +34%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $8,695 +$3,551 +41%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5,375 +$4,625 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $12,600 +$7,379 +59%
Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs Top Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $7,536 −$7,503 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4,273 +$5,727 +134%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $2,383 +$7,117 +299%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $1,930 +$733 +38%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $9,262 −$9,262 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $22,889 −$4,648 -20%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $22,014 −$19,939 -91%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $864 +$405 +47%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $15,724 +$18,879 +120%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4,463 −$4,400 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $372 −$372 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $11,750 −$11,660 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,451 +$1,654 +114%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10,167 −$3,167 -31%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $2,794 +$532 +19%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4,875 −$4,800 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $475 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $780 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $326 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $806 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $969 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $16 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $177 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $158 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $3,156 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 77¢ $6,134 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $30 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $101 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $158 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $1,216 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $3 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $4 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $232 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 76¢ $2,546 1h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $3,833 3h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 69¢ $3,587 3h
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 68¢ $2,952 3h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $7 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $2 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $9 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $220 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $8 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $3 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $6 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 22¢ $13 4h
LoL: T1 vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 24¢ $425 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,523.01 · official $22,523.01 (match) · 801 history records